OlehGirl.com
An alternate scenario for the PA
Right, Zvi has provided an alternate scenario that could unfold with the PA and he lays out just how bad it could be for us Israelis in it –I’m appending a bit of it below and you can read the rest under the comments of this post. Now, I myself am hoping that Ramzi is correct (btw he didn’t mean “roads” literally but more like we use “bridges” though slightly stronger in meaning) first because that would certainly be the best scenario all around and for everyone and secondly because he has been so incredibly right in the recent past about where things would go. On the other hand, Zvi is so incredibly knowledgeable about the ins and outs of Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Territories he simply boggles the mind. Here is what Zvi foresees:
Once it has finished gunning down Fatah members in Gaza and has achieved complete control of Gaza, HAMAS will call for a truce in the PA in order to freeze the situation and consolidate its gains. HAMAS will call for negotiations with Fatah, and Abbas will accept. Maybe there will be an exchange of hostages, mediated by one of the Sunni governments, the Arab League or the UN (any sucker who can be coaxed to participate; that government will then delude itself that it has influence and will retain an open tie with HAMAS, acting as its character witness to the world). A nice little diplomatic show will take place for the international community, in which HAMAS will try to get back Abbas as a fig leaf while controlling Gaza with an iron fist. Unless Abbas is threatened again by his own Fatah partisans, he will fall into the delusional trap of “speaking for all Palestinian people,†getting tangled up with HAMAS again rather than telling them to go to hell.
Most Gazans will worship HAMAS, because they will respect the most brutal guy on the street. And because they don’t want to be accused of being “collaborators.†Whatever the culture of Gaza once WAS, today Gaza today is Hamastan in more than just a political sense.
The Muslim Brotherhood will be strengthened in Egypt. Egypt is very pissed.
Khaled Meshaal is celebrating.
If HAMAS launches rockets, Israel should hit back very hard. But the world will come to HAMAS’s defense, because that’s the knee-jerk reaction. HAMAS can murder 20 Palestinians in cold blood – who cares? – but just let an Israeli shell be incorrectly targeted and kill a handful of Palestinians by accident… ! The UN dispatches an investigative team (one such team just reported its findings, in a grotesque travesty that says pretty much everything).
Meanwhile here is an on-the-ground report from Ramzi in Bethlehem:
The people in Gaza…well all i can tell you is that i tried calling friends from Gaza, phones are not working over there, Jawwal ( the palestinian mobile network) is not working in Gaza either, and news coverage is very limited, no Images ( other than the ones provided by hamas)…. But i guess that it must be very very very difficult to live under these conditions! I’m crossing my fingers for their Future …
Today, i witnessed 2 arrest raids in Bethlehem… the Palestinian Army arrested many hamas members over here, and at some point, i was driving when suddenly i saw a car stopping on the next side of the road , 4 palestinian soldiers came out and ran behind a middle aged man , stopped him, apparently disarmed him , and arrested him while saying †you chose the wrong side†!
The second arrest raid was at a Falafel and Humous restaurant … the palestinian security forces arrested two hamas men …
For the rest, i don’t know, but i am hearing occasionally some shootings here and there in bethlehem…
| Print article | This entry was posted by Yael on June 15, 2007 at 1:25 am, and is filed under Hamas, Israel, Middle East, Middle East Politics, Palestinians. Follow any responses to this post through RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site. |
(Photo by Dani Machlis)
about 3 years ago
I am addressing this comment to Ramzi: Be careful!!!!!! Stay safe!!!!!!!!
about 3 years ago
Yael,
Curious of your (and others) thoughts on two things (I’ve asked other bloggers this via email):
1) Approximately 80 Palestinians killed. Even if that’s a lowballed number, with the true death toll at 150-200, doesn’t that seem very very low for a civil war where each side has thousands of armed men? The “security services” alone must have numbered tens of thousands of people.
2) Where is Islamic Jihad in this whole mess? Might they be hoping Fatah and Hamas weaken each other, turning off the Palestinian people to one or both, at which time they can come in and proclaim “We’re the only ones that care about killing the Jews and not the Palestinians.” Islamic Jihad seems to have grown smartly over the years, at the cost of Fatah and Hamas.
Kol tuv.
about 3 years ago
Adam, I think that the deaths are not higher because civilians are keeping off the streets at present. That’s my guess. After peaceful protestors were fired on by HAMAS, I imagine that people in Gaza got the clear message that they would be killed if they protested or got in the way. My understanding is that there is almost no communication coming out of Gaza. I heard that HAMAS destroyed many internet cafes recently and the Palestinian bloggers from Gaza are silence. It is a terrible, frightening situation. I keep compulsively checking the news sources and blogs, hoping for better news than I have at present.
about 3 years ago
Thank you for explaining the ‘building roads connecting the West Bank to Jordan’ misunderstanding, Yael. You had me a bit flummoxed there for a minute, seeing as the Jordan Valley and the border with Jordan are under Israeli control. Naturally, any additional roads and bridges (real ones) built over the Jordan River, as part of a possible future Jordanian-Palestinian confederation, would be part of an international agreement, including Israel. One can’t just start work on them…
Anyway, thank you for the excellent commentary you’ve been supplying during the last few days.
about 3 years ago
Sexes:
While most prosobranch snails have separate sexes (there are males and females of them), as well certain opisthobranch sea slugs as pulmonate land and fresh water snails are hermaphrodites, they have male as well as female genital organs in a genital apparatus.
More about the Roman snail’s reproduction
More about the Roman snail’s genital apparatus
Mating and fertilisation:
Fertilisation takes place externally in the water only among certain archaic prosobranch snails (Patellogastropoda). Sperm and egg cells are released into the water and fertilisation is a matter of chance.
Picture: Andreas Heidl Nature Documentations.
Among the more highly developed snails fertilisation takes place internally in the female or at least in the snail acting as female. For that to be possible, fertilisation has to be preceded by a copulation, during which sperm cells are transferred to the sexual partner.
Hermaphroditic snails can copulate mutually (and usually do so).
A snail’s fertilisation by itself mostly is prevented by the development of sperm and egg cells, which, passing hermaphroditic areas of the genital apparatus are unripe and ripen only when those areas used by male as well as female genital cells are passed. Besides self-fertilisation is not feasible, as it not provides a mixing of genital information and so to the greatest extent hinders variation. Variation on the other hand is one of the most important motors of evolution. Organisms reproducing solely by self-fertilisation (parthenogenetically) have a very low variation only based on mutations occurring during the embryonic development. That is why most species, that reproduce parthenogenetically, at another time of their life also reproduce sexually (see generation cycles of trematodes).
During mating, a sperm cell packet, the spermatophore, is transferred to the partner.
The advantage of an internal fertilisation on first hand is that all gametes (genital cells) reach the partner. In external fertilisation that is left to chance. It makes necessary the production of very high numbers of gametes.
On the other hand the advantage of an internal fertilisation is that fertilized egg cells can be processed to be eggs. They can be provided with additional nutritive cells (yolk) as well as with protective coats, such as egg shells (terrestrial snails) or egg capsules (many sea snails, such as the whelk). This is, of course, impossible in case of an external fertilisation, as then fertilisation would be impossible. Those additional protections of the egg cells minimize the necessary number of egg cells (respectively eggs that have to be laid). So the evolutionary advantage is the energy that can be saved, and the greater safety of the offspring.
Sexes:
While most prosobranch snails have separate sexes (there are males and females of them), as well certain opisthobranch sea slugs as pulmonate land and fresh water snails are hermaphrodites, they have male as well as female genital organs in a genital apparatus.
More about the Roman snail’s reproduction
More about the Roman snail’s genital apparatus
Mating and fertilisation:
Fertilisation takes place externally in the water only among certain archaic prosobranch snails (Patellogastropoda). Sperm and egg cells are released into the water and fertilisation is a matter of chance.
Picture: Andreas Heidl Nature Documentations.
Among the more highly developed snails fertilisation takes place internally in the female or at least in the snail acting as female. For that to be possible, fertilisation has to be preceded by a copulation, during which sperm cells are transferred to the sexual partner.
Hermaphroditic snails can copulate mutually (and usually do so).
A snail’s fertilisation by itself mostly is prevented by the development of sperm and egg cells, which, passing hermaphroditic areas of the genital apparatus are unripe and ripen only when those areas used by male as well as female genital cells are passed. Besides self-fertilisation is not feasible, as it not provides a mixing of genital information and so to the greatest extent hinders variation. Variation on the other hand is one of the most important motors of evolution. Organisms reproducing solely by self-fertilisation (parthenogenetically) have a very low variation only based on mutations occurring during the embryonic development. That is why most species, that reproduce parthenogenetically, at another time of their life also reproduce sexually (see generation cycles of trematodes).
During mating, a sperm cell packet, the spermatophore, is transferred to the partner.
The advantage of an internal fertilisation on first hand is that all gametes (genital cells) reach the partner. In external fertilisation that is left to chance. It makes necessary the production of very high numbers of gametes.
On the other hand the advantage of an internal fertilisation is that fertilized egg cells can be processed to be eggs. They can be provided with additional nutritive cells (yolk) as well as with protective coats, such as egg shells (terrestrial snails) or egg capsules (many sea snails, such as the whelk). This is, of course, impossible in case of an external fertilisation, as then fertilisation would be impossible. Those additional protections of the egg cells minimize the necessary number of egg cells (respectively eggs that have to be laid). So the evolutionary advantage is the energy that can be saved, and the greater safety of the offspring.
Sexes:
While most prosobranch snails have separate sexes (there are males and females of them), as well certain opisthobranch sea slugs as pulmonate land and fresh water snails are hermaphrodites, they have male as well as female genital organs in a genital apparatus.
More about the Roman snail’s reproduction
More about the Roman snail’s genital apparatus
Mating and fertilisation:
Fertilisation takes place externally in the water only among certain archaic prosobranch snails (Patellogastropoda). Sperm and egg cells are released into the water and fertilisation is a matter of chance.
Picture: Andreas Heidl Nature Documentations.
Among the more highly developed snails fertilisation takes place internally in the female or at least in the snail acting as female. For that to be possible, fertilisation has to be preceded by a copulation, during which sperm cells are transferred to the sexual partner.
Hermaphroditic snails can copulate mutually (and usually do so).
A snail’s fertilisation by itself mostly is prevented by the development of sperm and egg cells, which, passing hermaphroditic areas of the genital apparatus are unripe and ripen only when those areas used by male as well as female genital cells are passed. Besides self-fertilisation is not feasible, as it not provides a mixing of genital information and so to the greatest extent hinders variation. Variation on the other hand is one of the most important motors of evolution. Organisms reproducing solely by self-fertilisation (parthenogenetically) have a very low variation only based on mutations occurring during the embryonic development. That is why most species, that reproduce parthenogenetically, at another time of their life also reproduce sexually (see generation cycles of trematodes).
During mating, a sperm cell packet, the spermatophore, is transferred to the partner.
The advantage of an internal fertilisation on first hand is that all gametes (genital cells) reach the partner. In external fertilisation that is left to chance. It makes necessary the production of very high numbers of gametes.
On the other hand the advantage of an internal fertilisation is that fertilized egg cells can be processed to be eggs. They can be provided with additional nutritive cells (yolk) as well as with protective coats, such as egg shells (terrestrial snails) or egg capsules (many sea snails, such as the whelk). This is, of course, impossible in case of an external fertilisation, as then fertilisation would be impossible. Those additional protections of the egg cells minimize the necessary number of egg cells (respectively eggs that have to be laid). So the evolutionary advantage is the energy that can be saved, and the greater safety of the offspring.
Sexes:
While most prosobranch snails have separate sexes (there are males and females of them), as well certain opisthobranch sea slugs as pulmonate land and fresh water snails are hermaphrodites, they have male as well as female genital organs in a genital apparatus.
More about the Roman snail’s reproduction
More about the Roman snail’s genital apparatus
Mating and fertilisation:
Fertilisation takes place externally in the water only among certain archaic prosobranch snails (Patellogastropoda). Sperm and egg cells are released into the water and fertilisation is a matter of chance.
Picture: Andreas Heidl Nature Documentations.
Among the more highly developed snails fertilisation takes place internally in the female or at least in the snail acting as female. For that to be possible, fertilisation has to be preceded by a copulation, during which sperm cells are transferred to the sexual partner.
Hermaphroditic snails can copulate mutually (and usually do so).
A snail’s fertilisation by itself mostly is prevented by the development of sperm and egg cells, which, passing hermaphroditic areas of the genital apparatus are unripe and ripen only when those areas used by male as well as female genital cells are passed. Besides self-fertilisation is not feasible, as it not provides a mixing of genital information and so to the greatest extent hinders variation. Variation on the other hand is one of the most important motors of evolution. Organisms reproducing solely by self-fertilisation (parthenogenetically) have a very low variation only based on mutations occurring during the embryonic development. That is why most species, that reproduce parthenogenetically, at another time of their life also reproduce sexually (see generation cycles of trematodes).
During mating, a sperm cell packet, the spermatophore, is transferred to the partner.
The advantage of an internal fertilisation on first hand is that all gametes (genital cells) reach the partner. In external fertilisation that is left to chance. It makes necessary the production of very high numbers of gametes.
On the other hand the advantage of an internal fertilisation is that fertilized egg cells can be processed to be eggs. They can be provided with additional nutritive cells (yolk) as well as with protective coats, such as egg shells (terrestrial snails) or egg capsules (many sea snails, such as the whelk). This is, of course, impossible in case of an external fertilisation, as then fertilisation would be impossible. Those additional protections of the egg cells minimize the necessary number of egg cells (respectively eggs that have to be laid). So the evolutionary advantage is the energy that can be saved, and the greater safety of the offspring.