Ok, just got this information from Ramzi, who is a well-connected young man from the West Bank:
Abbas just disbanded the government, announced the State of Emergency ( HUGE SIGNIFICANCE) and called for early elections as soon possible….
as for the confederation, I have to tell you that now, from official sources, i have confirmations! It’s ready… They are building roads connecting the West Bank to Jordan PLUS … i received news from a source in a West Bank municipality about what is happening and they apparently received orders to clean the grounds for the arrival of the Badr Brigades ( under Jordanian rule) …. You can’t possibly imagine what is happening over here! I am seeing it and not believing it ….
As for Gaza…it will be Egypt’s business from now on … Pre 1967 coming back ? I don’t know …but it looks much like it! Nobody can wait anymore and everything can happen in hours! IN HOURS… i repeat, i’m not analysing anymore, i’m just watching ….
That’s absolutely fascinating. Here I am writing essays on the disintegration of pan-Arabism, yet I see a piece of it coming alive once again right next door. Unbelievable, especially considering Egypt’s and Jordan’s histories of turning their backs on the concept (Egypt with her peace treaty with us and Jordan in Black September)….
On a different note, we should have coffee or something sometime soon. We’ve said this many times, but never get around to doing it…
My instincts insist on slowing down on “confederation.” I can see Jordan propping up Abbas, but that’s different than precipitously taking responsibility for the West Bank. Also, do you build roads in a few hours, when they have to cross an (admittedly tiny) river?
One other point - the Jordanian army entering the West Bank would require an Israeli approval and preparation, as well.
To send Jordan’s army into the West Bank, however, is a symbolically significant step. And yes, it would require Israeli approval, but then, to have the Palestinian territories taken over by countries with which we have strong peace treaties is quite in our interests.
However, should all of this actually come to pass, and these territories return to Egypt and Jordan, here is what I bet will happen:
1) It will be a massive drain on both of their economies
2) Hamas and others may yet again begin trying to use both countries as their bases of operations for attacks into Israel.
3) For the above two reasons, the populace and/or armies of both countries will begin to resent their Palestinian population, or even take action against them.
4) This will highlight the issue of a unique Palestinian identity once again, and there will be renewed calls for a Palestinian state.
5) And this will put us all back where we started…
Perhaps Jordan could temporarily guide a nascent Palestinian polity? Part of the problem of the past few years has been that Israel has been stuck with that sort of role, and it simply shouldn’t be and can’t perform it effectively.
Of course it’s a possibility, and you’re right, Israel hasn’t succeeded in playing that role.
However, any nascent Palestinian polity must have some sort of definition - will this new Palestinian state be the West Bank? Will it be the West Bank and Gaza? If it is to be the latter, can Egypt and Jordan work together effectively enough to guide it into being? If Jordan sends in its army, would it truly end up playing such a role, or would we just be swapping one form of long-term occupation for another?
Another thing that will be interesting to keep an eye on is the “pro-Jordanian” movement among West Bank Palestinians. I know that there are those who favor being reunited with Jordan; should Abdullah send in his army, what will be the dynamics between those Palestinians and their brothers and sisters who favor Palestinian sovereignty? And perhaps even more important…how will local Palestinian leaders interact with the Jordanian army and government?
Brian you bring up really good points and I have no idea if he is right, but I can say he has been right on every prediction up to this point. Badr is officially a Palestinian force, if I am remember correctly, that has been training in Jordan. I don’t think he meant roads in the literal sense.
Again he could be wrong and Zvi and Bad Vilbel who also make a lot of sense and are very knowledgeable as well could be correct with their much more pessimistic views –I certainly hope not. The scenario Zvi laid out is seriously bad for all of us for a long while to come and BV tends to agree with him.
Lena is exactly right about the troops coming in and Bibi Netanyahu (ack) actually talked about a scenario like this within the past month so it does seem to be something being floated behind doors here as well. To be exact, Netanyahu was quoted as saying “Some kind of federation or confederation between Jordan and the Palestinians would enhance peace prospects in the region,†in an interview with the Financial Times last month.
BTW, Lena yes, coffee –how is your Monday next week?
Nerve wracking happenings yes?!
[...] Right, Zvi has provided an alternate scenario that could unfold with the PA and he lays out just how bad it could be for us Israelis in it –I’m appending a bit of it below and you can read the rest under the comments of this post. Now, I myself am hoping that Ramzi is correct (btw he didn’t mean “roads” literally but more like we use “bridges” though slightly stronger in meaning) first because that would certainly be the best scenario all around and for everyone and secondly because he has been so incredibly right in the recent past about where things would go. On the other hand, Zvi is so incredibly knowledgeable about the ins and outs of Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Territories he simply boggles the mind. Here is what Zvi foresees: Once it has finished gunning down Fatah members in Gaza and has achieved complete control of Gaza, HAMAS will call for a truce in the PA in order to freeze the situation and consolidate its gains. HAMAS will call for negotiations with Fatah, and Abbas will accept. Maybe there will be an exchange of hostages, mediated by one of the Sunni governments, the Arab League or the UN (any sucker who can be coaxed to participate; that government will then delude itself that it has influence and will retain an open tie with HAMAS, acting as its character witness to the world). A nice little diplomatic show will take place for the international community, in which HAMAS will try to get back Abbas as a fig leaf while controlling Gaza with an iron fist. Unless Abbas is threatened again by his own Fatah partisans, he will fall into the delusional trap of “speaking for all Palestinian people,†getting tangled up with HAMAS again rather than telling them to go to hell. [...]
A question concerning these Badr Brigades - if they are an officially Palestinian force, are they staffed entirely by Palestinians? Are their commanders Palestinian or Jordanian? If it’s a question simply of a Palestinian force that was trained in Jordan, it doesn’t carry quite the weight that a purely Jordanian military force entering the West Bank would.
I’m not entirely certain that Bibi’s prediction that a Palestinian-Jordanian confederation would enhance peace prospects in the region, simply because I don’t believe that such a confederation would last very long, in light of relations between the Palestinians and their Arab brothers since 1967.
While we’re on the topic of Bibi, does Barak’s recent win (?!) in the Labor Party race mean that the next Israeli general election will essentially be Barak vs. Bibi? That almost frightens me more.
And lastly, Yael, Monday should be fine. Give me a place and a time.
Lena –my understanding is that they are the Palestinian brigade under the Jordan army. Jordan, as you know, has a population made up heavily of Palestinians and also has Palestinian refugees from the ‘67 war.
Formally, the Badr Brigade was one of four brigades of the Palestine Liberation Army (PLA) established by the PLO in various Arab countries (including the Ain Jalut Brigade in Egypt, the Qadissya Brigade in Iraq, the Hittin and Yarmuk Brigades in Syria, and the Badr Brigade in Jordan). Over time, however, the PLO lost control as these brigades came under the sway of their host countries and, in Jordan, they became a part of the regular Jordanian army while still keeping their Palestinian allegiance.
Yes it does –Bibi vs Barak –and it doesn’t frighten me, it makes want to yak in the nearest bush. I’ve not posted anything about Ayalon’s defeat because I was simply too depressed by it.
Time and place: what say you about Monday at 2? Place, please let me know your preference for coming into TV or me coming to see you close to the university…if university there is a great cafe right outside the main entrance. If here in TA, I have 2 that I really like
Yael - I haven’t lived at the university since September.
So name your place and I’ll come to you - Monday at 2 should be fine.
[...] The Hamas-Fatah civil war seems to be winding down in Gaza. Meanwhile, Palestinian and Israeli bloggers discuss the idea that the West Bank will go into confederation with Jordan; leaving Gaza to the Egyptians. [...]
[...] The Hamas-Fatah civil war seems to be winding down in Gaza. Meanwhile, Palestinian and Israeli bloggers discuss the idea that the West Bank will go into confederation with Jordan; leaving Gaza to the Egyptians. [...]
[...] Our Ramzi of Good Neighbors has been preternaturally calling the unfolding of events in Gaza, the West Bank and even as regards Lebanon in the past few months. Well before Gaza exploded, he predicted it would and he has been right on what will happen again and again and, now it seems yet again. Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has asked Israel for permission to bring Fatah forces based in Jordan to the West Bank to try to shore up his control after Hamas’s Gaza takeover, Israeli officials said on Tuesday. [...]