OlehGirl.com
Holy crap! Inside scoop on PA happenings!
Ok, just got this information from Ramzi, who is a well-connected young man from the West Bank:
Abbas just disbanded the government, announced the State of Emergency ( HUGE SIGNIFICANCE) and called for early elections as soon possible….
as for the confederation, I have to tell you that now, from official sources, i have confirmations! It’s ready… They are building roads connecting the West Bank to Jordan PLUS … i received news from a source in a West Bank municipality about what is happening and they apparently received orders to clean the grounds for the arrival of the Badr Brigades ( under Jordanian rule) …. You can’t possibly imagine what is happening over here! I am seeing it and not believing it ….
As for Gaza…it will be Egypt’s business from now on … Pre 1967 coming back ? I don’t know …but it looks much like it! Nobody can wait anymore and everything can happen in hours! IN HOURS… i repeat, i’m not analysing anymore, i’m just watching ….
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| Print article | This entry was posted by Yael on June 14, 2007 at 9:27 pm, and is filed under Israel, Palestinians. Follow any responses to this post through RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site. |
(Photo by Dani Machlis)
about 3 years ago
That’s absolutely fascinating. Here I am writing essays on the disintegration of pan-Arabism, yet I see a piece of it coming alive once again right next door. Unbelievable, especially considering Egypt’s and Jordan’s histories of turning their backs on the concept (Egypt with her peace treaty with us and Jordan in Black September)….
On a different note, we should have coffee or something sometime soon. We’ve said this many times, but never get around to doing it…
about 3 years ago
My instincts insist on slowing down on “confederation.” I can see Jordan propping up Abbas, but that’s different than precipitously taking responsibility for the West Bank. Also, do you build roads in a few hours, when they have to cross an (admittedly tiny) river?
about 3 years ago
One other point – the Jordanian army entering the West Bank would require an Israeli approval and preparation, as well.
about 3 years ago
To send Jordan’s army into the West Bank, however, is a symbolically significant step. And yes, it would require Israeli approval, but then, to have the Palestinian territories taken over by countries with which we have strong peace treaties is quite in our interests.
However, should all of this actually come to pass, and these territories return to Egypt and Jordan, here is what I bet will happen:
1) It will be a massive drain on both of their economies
2) Hamas and others may yet again begin trying to use both countries as their bases of operations for attacks into Israel.
3) For the above two reasons, the populace and/or armies of both countries will begin to resent their Palestinian population, or even take action against them.
4) This will highlight the issue of a unique Palestinian identity once again, and there will be renewed calls for a Palestinian state.
5) And this will put us all back where we started…
about 3 years ago
Perhaps Jordan could temporarily guide a nascent Palestinian polity? Part of the problem of the past few years has been that Israel has been stuck with that sort of role, and it simply shouldn’t be and can’t perform it effectively.
about 3 years ago
Of course it’s a possibility, and you’re right, Israel hasn’t succeeded in playing that role.
However, any nascent Palestinian polity must have some sort of definition – will this new Palestinian state be the West Bank? Will it be the West Bank and Gaza? If it is to be the latter, can Egypt and Jordan work together effectively enough to guide it into being? If Jordan sends in its army, would it truly end up playing such a role, or would we just be swapping one form of long-term occupation for another?
Another thing that will be interesting to keep an eye on is the “pro-Jordanian” movement among West Bank Palestinians. I know that there are those who favor being reunited with Jordan; should Abdullah send in his army, what will be the dynamics between those Palestinians and their brothers and sisters who favor Palestinian sovereignty? And perhaps even more important…how will local Palestinian leaders interact with the Jordanian army and government?
about 3 years ago
Brian you bring up really good points and I have no idea if he is right, but I can say he has been right on every prediction up to this point. Badr is officially a Palestinian force, if I am remember correctly, that has been training in Jordan. I don’t think he meant roads in the literal sense.
Again he could be wrong and Zvi and Bad Vilbel who also make a lot of sense and are very knowledgeable as well could be correct with their much more pessimistic views –I certainly hope not. The scenario Zvi laid out is seriously bad for all of us for a long while to come and BV tends to agree with him.
Lena is exactly right about the troops coming in and Bibi Netanyahu (ack) actually talked about a scenario like this within the past month so it does seem to be something being floated behind doors here as well. To be exact, Netanyahu was quoted as saying “Some kind of federation or confederation between Jordan and the Palestinians would enhance peace prospects in the region,†in an interview with the Financial Times last month.
BTW, Lena yes, coffee –how is your Monday next week?
Nerve wracking happenings yes?!
about 3 years ago
A question concerning these Badr Brigades – if they are an officially Palestinian force, are they staffed entirely by Palestinians? Are their commanders Palestinian or Jordanian? If it’s a question simply of a Palestinian force that was trained in Jordan, it doesn’t carry quite the weight that a purely Jordanian military force entering the West Bank would.
I’m not entirely certain that Bibi’s prediction that a Palestinian-Jordanian confederation would enhance peace prospects in the region, simply because I don’t believe that such a confederation would last very long, in light of relations between the Palestinians and their Arab brothers since 1967.
While we’re on the topic of Bibi, does Barak’s recent win (?!) in the Labor Party race mean that the next Israeli general election will essentially be Barak vs. Bibi? That almost frightens me more.
And lastly, Yael, Monday should be fine. Give me a place and a time.
about 3 years ago
Lena –my understanding is that they are the Palestinian brigade under the Jordan army. Jordan, as you know, has a population made up heavily of Palestinians and also has Palestinian refugees from the ‘67 war.
Formally, the Badr Brigade was one of four brigades of the Palestine Liberation Army (PLA) established by the PLO in various Arab countries (including the Ain Jalut Brigade in Egypt, the Qadissya Brigade in Iraq, the Hittin and Yarmuk Brigades in Syria, and the Badr Brigade in Jordan). Over time, however, the PLO lost control as these brigades came under the sway of their host countries and, in Jordan, they became a part of the regular Jordanian army while still keeping their Palestinian allegiance.
Yes it does –Bibi vs Barak –and it doesn’t frighten me, it makes want to yak in the nearest bush. I’ve not posted anything about Ayalon’s defeat because I was simply too depressed by it.
Time and place: what say you about Monday at 2? Place, please let me know your preference for coming into TV or me coming to see you close to the university…if university there is a great cafe right outside the main entrance. If here in TA, I have 2 that I really like
about 3 years ago
Yael – I haven’t lived at the university since September.
So name your place and I’ll come to you – Monday at 2 should be fine.