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Will kassams begin to be launched at Egypt?
This is something I’ve been wondering about for at least 2 years now. Hamas has stormed the Egyptian border fence, they’ve knocked holes in it with bulldozers, they’ve shot at Egyptian police and army. Now Egypt is building one hell of a border fence (it makes our chain-link fence between us and Gaza and our protective barrier along the West Bank seem like child’s play). The Egypt-Gaza border fence is going deep down into the ground (to cut off the smuggling tunnels) and high up into the air (to stop the bulldozer phenomenon), and it is made of steel thick enough that not much could knock it down. Egyptian workers on the fence are being shot at by unhappy people in Gaza it seems. But see here’s the deal.
Hamas would like to take over the West Bank. But they have a serious problem. They could certainly manage to take it over if they were connected to it. If there was a Gaza-West Bank connection in place today, Fatah would be toast (and well they know it). But there isn’t likely to be a Gaza-West Bank connecting corridor for some considerable time. It won’t happen until there is some sort of pseudo Hamas-Fatah reconciliation (no one hold their breath) and it won’t happen until there is some Palestinian-Israeli peace agreement (perhaps more feasible to hold one’s breath over than the first). It will take both things to happen, however. Hamas is not following a Palestinian agenda but rather an Iranian-Hezbollah-caliphate agenda. Israel is but one part of the planned destruct-a-country. I mean, look, both Hezbollah and Hamas have already had members not only planning bombings and attacks in Egypt (and the cells were caught) but actually HAVE carried out attacks in Egypt on non-Israeli-frequented targets (e.g., the market bombing in Cairo). Hamas (and friends) have got to be looking at the Sinai as potential take-over and expand and have new territory for launching attacks –at both Israel and potentially greater Egypt.
I’m a bit surprised they haven’t begun launching kassams and katyushas in Egypt’s direction already. I wonder if they will and how long it will be before they do?
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(Photo by Dani Machlis)
about 8 months ago
Kassams would make bigger news, so they will be content to work quietly subversively or make such attacks appear “random” rather than an assault by Hamas as a group. They have to be careful not to upset the other Arab states, though not too careful, I suspect. I like to read what Sand Monkey’s perspective is on this.
about 8 months ago
Well, as you correctly said, it all is part of a bigger scheme and strategy. The ones holding the strings of the puppets are Adolfdinedshad and his people in Iran. Their interest is complete hegemony over what we call the Middle East, that is all Arab countries and those on the fringes like Afghanistan, Azerbaijan Sudan, Somalia and eventually Egypt and the Northern African muslim countries.
This will not happen over night, but Iran is not in a rush. Iran will take one country at a time, following a time proven approach displayed by communist China and the Soviet Union in their respective realms. Just as in the cold war, they need one conflict to be simmering, not more, but simmering: that is the Israel-Palestine issue. This conflict keeps the faithful happy and focused. Iran uses its minions in Hamas and Hezbollah to keep the fire stoked. At the same time its vassal Syria ensures safe supplies. Iraq has been taken care of, once the last American soldier is gone, Iran will move in without firing a shot.
From this base Iran will be threatening the new neighbors: Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis, Kuwaitis and the other gulf countries are being carved out from the inside, just like the Soviet Union worked silently on the weaker NATO countries such as Italy during the cold war. Should push come to shove, these countries will fall like a house of cards. Their rulers know that and will therefore appease Iran.
Jordan is in no better position. Having been steadily undermined by its Palestinian guests, and being subtly threatened by Syria and a new Iran-controlled Iraq Jordan is in no position to oppose any Iranian desires.
So far the only ally Jordan has, besides a very interested Israel, is Egypt. Before we go to Egypt, let’s just look at the other fringes of the new and coming Persian empire.
In Afghanistan the Europeans will pull the plug on the military presence and therefore the current government latest in 2 years, and an Obama administration will not continue alone. Afghanistan, not Iraq, will be the new Vietnam. Just like Vietnam, it will try to be independent, also from its two big benefactors and neighbors, Iran and Pakistan. Iran will have to accept this, but it will do so happily, because Afghanistan also will provide a buffer between Iran and Pakistan and Russia.
Sudan already is in Iran’s pocket, and so are Somalia and Eritrea. Ethiopia is being made the next battle ground in Africa. Most people in the West haven’t realized that yet, but Iran subtly and silently has started to exert control on the most important shipping lanes to the West: the Street of Hormuz, the exit of the Persian Gulf, and, through their allies in Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia the entrance to the Red Sea and eventually the Suez Canal.
That is also the reason for the increased naval presence of NATO in the Red Sea and the close cooperation between the Israeli and Egyptian navies, however, as always the Europeans will raise the white flag when Iran deems it necessary and America alone will be hard pressed to keep them open.
Turkey, at the Northern fringe is a NATO country whose Islamist government has begun alienating the country from its Western and secular ties. Turkey will not be part of the Iranian realm, but, wedged between Iran, Russia and Europe will serve as a benevolent buffer. Iran openly has been courting Turkey for the past years and the deteriorating relationship between Israel and Turkey is a sign that it is successful.
Now comes Egypt. Egypt is the biggest stumbling block to Iranian hegemony at the time being. Egypt is the only country in the region besides Israel which could, by sheer numbers of population, stand up to an Iranian military threat. However, Egypt does not have nuclear arms and will not have them soon. That is one reason Iran is pushing for them.
It seems many people don’t realize that either, the Iranian nuclear program is not focused on threatening Israel. That is the smoke screen. It is also not focused on threatening Saudi Arabia, because Iran could even now simply invade them, and even the US could not do anything. The nuclear program is aimed at Egypt, signaling that Egypt better stay out of Iran’s way in its quest to dominate the Arab world.
If Iran today moved into Saudi Arabia and the gulf countries or into Jordan, it would have to be Egyptian troops to fend them off. The threat of nuking Cairo shall take care of that.
At the same time, Iran is supporting those who work tirelessly to bring Egypt into the radical islamic world. Mubarak’s regime is the only resistance to Iranian domination in the area. If Iran is successful in toppling it and replacing it by an islamist government, all the other dominoes will fall: Jordan, Saudi, Kuwait, the UAE, Oman, even Algeria and Marocco. Libya will have to become a vassal, like Syria. Turkey will have to be nice.
And then, only then, will Iran turn to Israel, for the next version of the “Final Solution.” Egypt is the strategic key.
about 8 months ago
Nothing is going to happen.
The fence the Egyptians push down earth is the same metal shielding being used to construct a harbour.
about 8 months ago
Dear Yael:
I am also not your “typical” Aliyah candidate. I am 33 years old, and am about to make Aliyah from the US in a few weeks. Naturally, I am excited, but also scared, fearful of being lonely, anxious, etc. I was hoping to get in touch with you via email, etc (you don’t need to publish this on the site). Anyway, hopefully we can touch base.
Sincerely,
Kevin
about 8 months ago
Hamas and their ilk are idiots. Even Egypt knows they are a dangerous PITA and builds a wall a-la the Israeli West Bank wall. Make peace, take what you have, build your economy like what is starting to happen in the West Bank and then you’ll thrive. This is the 21st century, not the 11th!
about 8 months ago
I’m strongly in favor of walls in situations where people on both sides of the border face danger. It makes sense to keep the danger out by keeping those who would use violence against their neighbors on their own territory. When I was in Luxembourg, I read the history of the defensive wall there. The neighbors pressured the people of Luxembourg to take down portions of the wall, and as soon as they did, the people of Luxembourg were attacked. A wall is defensive, not offensive, and as such, is a viable strategy for preventing violence and misery.
about 8 months ago
I read a Stratfor analysis about the situation. Egypt is very worried about Hamas, which is seen as an extension of Iranian ambitions and power. Egypt is building a wall of heavy metal that goes 59 feet into the earth and which is monitored for break throughs by Hamas through new sensors which will alert the Egyptians. Already Hamas members have shot Egyptian workers—at least four of them recently. The attitude from many in the Arab world is that the Palestinians have a country, Jordan, and that their becoming a Palestinian state would be a threat and have a destabilizing effect in the Middle East (also from a recent Middle East analysis). I think that there is little or no doubt that Hezbollah and Hamas are supported by Iran. Of course, I make a distinction between the government of Iran and the people of Iran.