Bibi will win the next election. Whether this year or next (hey so why wait? bring it on) Bibi will win. This is how I know: the following is a conversation I had last night and that I was way too tired to blog about when I finally got home from work very late in the evening. Let me introduce everyone who took part based on where we all were politically at the time of the last election a mere 2 years ago:

The cast of characters
Me – idealistic socialist die-hard (and it was so hard and painful, that death) Labour supporter, I was absolutely on the extreme right-wing as compared to the other comrades below, especially as I *gasp* stood painfully trying to decide whether to vote my party or the more center-right Kadima in the ballot box.
Bachur — fellow Labour supporter and (then) active Peace Now-nik who voted Labour but wavered about possibly voting (much more left-wing) Meretz.
Bachura 1 — Meretz voter who had absolutely no question, it was Meretz all the way.
Bachura 2 — Meretz! Meretz! Meretz!
Hadasha — female comrade who had switched from Meretz to the (extremely extremely left-wing) Hadash party.

The setting: a long train ride across the country to the City of Sin, (aka) Tel Aviv.

Conversation background: The conversation began with our discussion of the death of a college student and father-of-four at Sapir College yesterday, murdered by a Qassam rocket shot from Gaza. Bachur worked at Sapir until 2 months ago. He had just finished stating that he thought it was irresponsible not to close Sapir College because they were endangering the students and the faculty by allowing classes to be held where rockets were daily falling and I’d just had an argument with him on that position –so should we evacuate Sderot and surrounds? What about Ashkelon, in the middle of the country and now being hit by rockets –evacuate that too? We don’t have very much land to evacuate into…where does it end, we push ourselves into the sea? [Note, I should perhaps give him a break here because his experience working at Sderot had seriously shell-shocked him and he'd himself come really close to being a rocket casualty]. This, of course, led to the current government action and lack thereof and the possibility that Shas would pull out –every one of the comrades agreed that it won’t happen, because they’ve been bought at the expense of the rest of the country with legislation that harms everyone who is not extremely religious and huge quantities of cash going to the religious sector now rather than to the secular poor, secular schools and so forth, and that Shas has been well and truly bought to the point that they will sell out their theoretically beloved Jerusalem. And this led to elections in general.

Bachur: We won’t have elections until next year and then it will be Bibi. For sure.
Me: Well, maybe by next year sentiment will have changed. That’’s why Barak doesn’t want to pull Labour out now, because he knows that if we have elections now it will certainly be Bibi.
Bachur : Barak can wait 10 years for the election and he still won’t win.
Me: I’m thinking about voting for Livni if she is the one to head up Kadima. I certainly can’t vote for Barak.
Bachura 1: Livni has no chance. Maybe in 4 or 5 years, but right now no one can forgive her for calling on Olmert to quit and then not quitting his cabinet herself. People see that as a sign of weakness. She chickened out at the last moment and no one will forgive her for that.
Bachura 2: Anyway, Olmert will probably manage to again be the leader for Kadima in the next elections.
Bachur: We have no good candidates but Bibi is the best we do have.
Me: (shocked) You can’t tell me you would vote for Bibi!
Bachur: We have a better chance at getting a peace settlement with Likud in charge. Yes, I’ll vote for Bibi.
Me: What?!
Bachur: Listen, you know I had a Palestinian girl friend for a long time. One of the things I learned from her and her family and from Palestinian friends was that we do better in negotiations with the Palestinians when we have a very strong leader that they are afraid of -one that they don’t ever know how he will react or what he will do.

If they consider a leader to be weak or a joke, like they do Olmert, they toy with him but any agreement they might come to doesn’t mean anything and they have no intent to keep it. That is what happened when Barak was in charge of the negotiations. With people like Sharon or Bibi, because they never know what these crazy guys will do and because they are seen as being very strong and harsh, they have a lot of respect for them. They hate them but they respect them.

My girlfriend and her family used to laugh at how clueless most Israelis were, myself included, with their European way of thinking about how to negotiate in the Middle East and said that the Sefardim knew the score because they had lived in arabic countries. The Sefardim are almost all right-wing. The Askenazim think like the Europeans do with the idea that seeming to be open to making concessions and meeting the other half-way or even more than half-way is the good and right thing to do and they don’t realize that doing that is taken as a sign of weakness, that it is something that arabs don’t respect in a leader, and that it will never lead to any kind of agreement that is worth anything.

Me: I still couldn’t vote for Bibi.
Bachur: Who are you going to vote for then, if Olmert heads Kadima, Beilin (Meretz)?
Bachura 2: (snorting) Beilin is out. Meretz is dead and can’t be restored.
Me: Absolutely not for Meretz. [Turning to Bachura 2] You aren’t supporting Meretz anymore?
Bachura 2: I’ll also vote for Bibi. He is the only one possible to vote for.
Me: (feeling the need to ask for CPR) You’re joking. Tell me you are joking.
Bachura 1: I’d vote for Bibi too. I couldn’t ever vote for Barak, not after what he has done. Definitely not Olmert or Livni. That leaves Bibi or Lieberman and you know, nobody in their right mind would vote for Lieberman.

I looked sideways at Hadasha, hardly daring. She shrugged.
Hadasha: I might vote for Barak. But, probably, Bibi.